The Pohrer Report - Q2 2022

Clients, prospective clients, buyers, sellers, real estate enthusiasts, colleagues and friends, 

“Is the market softening?”

This is a question I get on a weekly basis from clients and prospective clients. If only I had a crystal ball and could predict real estate market cycles! Although I cannot provide a definitive answer to that question, I thought it would be helpful to share some of the data and reports that I look at as leading indicators to spot trends in global and local real estate markets.

In this quarter's report, as with all of our reports, I share actuals from the past quarter. But Q2 2022 actuals do not answer the broader market question that so many of you are eager to uncover. This is because Q2 is a lagging indicator of the market, reflecting transactions that closed in Q2 but actually moved to contract in Q4 2021, Q1 2022, and Q2 2022. We won’t know for certain how the Palm Beach market is being impacted by  macro trends such as rising interest rates, stock market upheaval, and other economic shifts until Q4 of this year or even Q1 of next year, because real estate players need time to react to how their pricing and their pocketbooks fit into the big picture. But I think you will find the data and trends I watch helpful in painting a picture of how real estate is being impacted by the rise in interest rates and Federal Reserve balance sheet tightening.

There is a lot to unpack in this quarter's report, and the most interesting thing I found is that although some leading indicators show softening in real estate globally, Florida — specifically Palm Beach — is holding its ground and impacted to a lesser extent.

I hope you enjoy the read and as always, please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions.

Best regards, 

Gary